Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sergio Moraes
Luan Chagas
28%
72%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
34
Age
Δ 11y
23
W4
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Moraes: 28 sig / 0 TD ·
Chagas: 46 sig / 0 TD
Sergio Moraes
Luan Chagas
27
Sig strikes landed
32
56
Sig strikes attempted
67
41
Total strikes landed
45
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
128s
Control time
114s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Sergio Moraes
"The Panther"
15-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
Luan Chagas
"Tarzan"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23