Prelims2
Light Heavyweight
Rogerio Nogueira vs Patrick Cummins
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
·Arena da Baixada
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Rogerio Nogueira
Patrick Cummins
65%
35%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
40
Age
Δ 4y
36
23-11
Career record
Δ 12 pp
10-8
L2
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nogueira: 30 sig / 0 TD ·
Cummins: 12 sig / 0 TD
Rogerio Nogueira
Patrick Cummins
30
Sig strikes landed
34
74
Sig strikes attempted
78
49
Total strikes landed
57
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.9
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
76s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Rogerio Nogueira
"Minotouro"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
40
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
W
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
Blue corner
L1
Patrick Cummins
"Durkin"
10-8
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—