Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Thiago Santos
Nate Marquardt
54%
46%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
32
Age
Δ 5y
37
23-11
Career record
Δ 4 pp
36-19-2
W3
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Santos: 16 sig / 0 TD ·
Marquardt: 7 sig / 0 TD
Thiago Santos
Nate Marquardt
28
Sig strikes landed
18
56
Sig strikes attempted
35
40
Total strikes landed
29
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
78s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
23-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
Blue corner
W1
Nate Marquardt
"The Great"
36-19-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
10 fights · 4-6
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—