Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Matt Brown
74%
26%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
38
Age
Δ 3y
35
29-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
27-19
W4
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Maia: 17 sig / 3 TD ·
Brown: 10 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Matt Brown
29
Sig strikes landed
34
65
Sig strikes attempted
68
60
Total strikes landed
51
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.5
7.3
Takedowns attempted
0.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
301s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
31%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Demian Maia
29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
39
In our database
16 fights · 11-5
Last 5
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
L
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
Blue corner
W1
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
27-19
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—