Prelims1
Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo vs Yancy Medeiros
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
·Arena da Baixada
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francisco Trinaldo
Yancy Medeiros
70%
30%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
76"
38
Age
Δ 9y
29
29-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
16-8
W5
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Trinaldo: 117 sig / 2 TD ·
Medeiros: 51 sig / 0 TD
Francisco Trinaldo
Yancy Medeiros
36
Sig strikes landed
31
71
Sig strikes attempted
81
51
Total strikes landed
44
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.8
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
128s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
29-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
Blue corner
W1
Yancy Medeiros
16-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—