🏆 Title fight
Main
Heavyweight
Fabricio Werdum vs Stipe Miocic
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
·Arena da Baixada
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Fabricio Werdum
Stipe Miocic
52%
48%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
80"
39
Age
Δ 5y
34
25-9-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
21-5
W6
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Werdum: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Miocic: 20 sig / 0 TD
Fabricio Werdum
Stipe Miocic
58
Sig strikes landed
71
108
Sig strikes attempted
145
79
Total strikes landed
93
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
73s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
25-9-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
W
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Stipe Miocic
21-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—