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Main Heavyweight

Timothy Johnson vs Marcin Tybura

UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos ·Zagreb Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Timothy Johnson
Marcin Tybura
38% 62%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
L1
Current streak
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2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Johnson: 45 sig / 0 TD · Tybura: 48 sig / 1 TD
Timothy Johnson
Marcin Tybura
25
Sig strikes landed
30
58
Sig strikes attempted
59
47
Total strikes landed
50
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.0
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
245s
Control time
97s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Timothy Johnson

12-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
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W UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
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Blue corner

Marcin Tybura

"Tybur"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30