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Main Heavyweight

Francis Ngannou vs Curtis Blaydes

UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos ·Zagreb Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Francis Ngannou
Curtis Blaydes
56% 44%
Why
83"
Reach
Δ 3"
80"
30
Age
Δ 4y
25
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 2
Ngannou: 36 sig / 0 TD · Blaydes: 24 sig / 2 TD
Francis Ngannou
Curtis Blaydes
36
Sig strikes landed
22
67
Sig strikes attempted
55
42
Total strikes landed
36
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.7
0.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
46s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Francis Ngannou

"The Predator"
18-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
Blue corner

Curtis Blaydes

"Razor"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25