Main
Heavyweight
Derrick Lewis vs Gabriel Gonzaga
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos
·Zagreb Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Gabriel Gonzaga
86%
14%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
31
Age
Δ 6y
37
30-13
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-11
W2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lewis: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Gonzaga: 5 sig / 1 TD
Derrick Lewis
Gabriel Gonzaga
21
Sig strikes landed
15
37
Sig strikes attempted
21
38
Total strikes landed
29
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.6
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
125s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
30-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
Blue corner
W1
Gabriel Gonzaga
"Napao"
18-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 5-6
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—