Prelims1
Middleweight
Vitor Miranda vs Marcelo Guimaraes
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Vitor Miranda
Marcelo Guimaraes
52%
48%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
37
Age
Δ 4y
33
13-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
10-2-1
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Miranda: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Guimaraes: 23 sig / 1 TD
Vitor Miranda
Marcelo Guimaraes
39
Sig strikes landed
37
77
Sig strikes attempted
60
58
Total strikes landed
48
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.5
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
143s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Vitor Miranda
"Lex Luthor"
13-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—
Blue corner
W1
Marcelo Guimaraes
"Magrao"
10-2-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—