Prelims1
Featherweight
Darren Elkins vs Chas Skelly
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Darren Elkins
Chas Skelly
55%
45%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
30-12
Career record
Δ 16 pp
20-3
W1
Current streak
W4
13
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elkins: 104 sig / 7 TD ·
Skelly: 27 sig / 0 TD
Darren Elkins
Chas Skelly
28
Sig strikes landed
30
78
Sig strikes attempted
75
68
Total strikes landed
50
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.6
5.0
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
170s
Control time
207s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
Blue corner
W4
Chas Skelly
"The Scrapper"
20-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—