Prelims1
Welterweight
Brandon Thatch vs Siyar Bahadurzada
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brandon Thatch
Siyar Bahadurzada
35%
65%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
11-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
24-9-1
L2
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Thatch: 30 sig / 1 TD ·
Bahadurzada: 84 sig / 3 TD
Brandon Thatch
Siyar Bahadurzada
28
Sig strikes landed
31
64
Sig strikes attempted
71
38
Total strikes landed
56
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
34s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Brandon Thatch
"Rukus"
11-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
Blue corner
L2
Siyar Bahadurzada
"The Great"
24-9-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—