Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jason Saggo
Justin Salas
74%
26%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
12-5
Career record
Δ 11 pp
12-8
L1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Saggo: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Salas: 1 sig / 1 TD
Jason Saggo
Justin Salas
27
Sig strikes landed
20
60
Sig strikes attempted
33
54
Total strikes landed
32
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
243s
Control time
84s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jason Saggo
12-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
Blue corner
L1
Justin Salas
"J-Bomb"
12-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—