Prelims2
Featherweight
Julian Erosa vs Teruto Ishihara
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Julian Erosa
Teruto Ishihara
84%
16%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
69"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
32-14
Career record
Δ 20 pp
10-7-3
W1
Current streak
D1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Erosa: 16 sig / 1 TD ·
Ishihara: 27 sig / 0 TD
Julian Erosa
Teruto Ishihara
51
Sig strikes landed
30
99
Sig strikes attempted
80
76
Total strikes landed
68
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
182s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Julian Erosa
"Juicy J"
32-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
Blue corner
D1
Teruto Ishihara
"Yashabo"
10-7-3
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-0
Last 1
D
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—