Main
Light Heavyweight
Corey Anderson vs Tom Lawlor
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Corey Anderson
Tom Lawlor
80%
20%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
26
Age
Δ 6y
33
15-5
Career record
Δ 10 pp
11-6
W2
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Anderson: 55 sig / 1 TD ·
Lawlor: 31 sig / 1 TD
Corey Anderson
Tom Lawlor
44
Sig strikes landed
31
86
Sig strikes attempted
70
72
Total strikes landed
44
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
4.1
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
203s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Corey Anderson
"Overtime"
15-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
Blue corner
W2
Tom Lawlor
"Filthy"
11-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Lati…
—
L
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—