🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Bantamweight
Holly Holm vs Miesha Tate
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Holly Holm
Miesha Tate
50%
50%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
65"
34
Age
Δ 5y
30
16-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
21-10
W3
Current streak
W4
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 5
Holm: 59 sig / 0 TD ·
Tate: 40 sig / 2 TD
Holly Holm
Miesha Tate
46
Sig strikes landed
47
124
Sig strikes attempted
108
74
Total strikes landed
74
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.8
0.6
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
53s
Control time
172s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Holly Holm
"The Preacher's Daughter"
16-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
Blue corner
W4
Miesha Tate
"Cupcake"
21-10
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
L
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—