Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Conor McGregor
Nate Diaz
82%
18%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
23-6
Career record
Δ 15 pp
23-13
W7
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
McGregor: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Diaz: 77 sig / 1 TD
Conor McGregor
Nate Diaz
56
Sig strikes landed
53
120
Sig strikes attempted
128
63
Total strikes landed
74
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
83s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
23-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
7 fights · 7-0
Last 5
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
Blue corner
W1
Nate Diaz
23-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 7-6
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—