Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Melvin Guillard
Derek Campos
75%
25%
Why
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
32-19-2
Career record
Δ 13 pp
19-7
L1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Melvin Guillard
Derek Campos
41
Sig strikes landed
37
96
Sig strikes attempted
113
54
Total strikes landed
59
0.9
Takedowns landed
2.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.60
Knockdowns
0.30
95s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Melvin Guillard
"The Young Assassin"
32-19-2
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 141: Guillard vs. Girtz
—
Blue corner
L2
Derek Campos
"The Stallion"
19-7
Career record
Height
69"
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
Bellator 146: Kato vs. Manhoef
—
L
Bellator 138: Unfinished Busine…
—