Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Ferguson
Dhafir Harris
76%
24%
Why
42
Age
Δ 4y
38
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Kevin Ferguson
Dhafir Harris
25
Sig strikes landed
43
57
Sig strikes attempted
58
47
Total strikes landed
39
0.9
Takedowns landed
3.8
0.4
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.60
Knockdowns
0.40
49s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
15%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
47%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kevin Ferguson
"Kimbo Slice"
6-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 138: Unfinished Busine…
—
Blue corner
Dhafir Harris
"Dada 5000"
0-0
Career record
Age
39