Main
Lightweight
Jake Matthews vs Johnny Case
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
·Brisbane Entertainment Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Johnny Case
62%
38%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
22
Age
Δ 5y
27
24-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-6
W1
Current streak
W4
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Matthews: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Case: 35 sig / 1 TD
Jake Matthews
Johnny Case
37
Sig strikes landed
41
89
Sig strikes attempted
108
55
Total strikes landed
60
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
5.3
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
122s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
24-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—
Blue corner
W4
Johnny Case
"Hollywood"
23-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—