Main
Middleweight
Daniel Kelly vs Antonio Carlos Junior
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
·Brisbane Entertainment Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Daniel Kelly
Antonio Carlos Junior
39%
61%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 8"
79"
38
Age
Δ 12y
26
14-4
Career record
Δ 9 pp
11-5
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Kelly: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Carlos Junior: 33 sig / 2 TD
Daniel Kelly
Antonio Carlos Junior
25
Sig strikes landed
34
58
Sig strikes attempted
89
45
Total strikes landed
52
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.5
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
116s
Control time
200s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Daniel Kelly
14-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
Blue corner
W1
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
11-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—