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Prelims1 Welterweight

Jonavin Webb vs Nathan Coy

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy ·PPG Paints Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Jonavin Webb
Nathan Coy
74% 26%
Why
27
Age
Δ 11y
38
9-3
Career record
Δ 10 pp
15-8
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Webb: 21 sig / 3 TD · Coy: 37 sig / 3 TD
Jonavin Webb
Nathan Coy
32
Sig strikes landed
27
73
Sig strikes attempted
49
51
Total strikes landed
38
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
185s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Jonavin Webb

"The Spyder"
9-3 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
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Blue corner
L1

Nathan Coy

"Soulforce"
15-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
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