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Prelims1 Middleweight

Anthony Smith vs Leonardo Guimaraes

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy ·PPG Paints Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Anthony Smith
Leonardo Guimaraes
83% 17%
Why
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Smith: 57 sig / 2 TD · Guimaraes: 64 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Smith
Leonardo Guimaraes
36
Sig strikes landed
41
74
Sig strikes attempted
80
37
Total strikes landed
56
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
74s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
16%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
43%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Anthony Smith

"Lionheart"
38-23
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
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Blue corner

Leonardo Guimaraes

"Leleco"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34