Back to UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy
Prelims2 Women's Bantamweight

Marion Reneau vs Ashlee Evans-Smith

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy ·PPG Paints Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Marion Reneau
Ashlee Evans-Smith
43% 57%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 0"
68"
39
Age
Δ 10y
29
9-9-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
6-7
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Reneau: 53 sig / 1 TD · Evans-Smith: 55 sig / 1 TD
Marion Reneau
Ashlee Evans-Smith
38
Sig strikes landed
29
68
Sig strikes attempted
76
66
Total strikes landed
49
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.0
0.9
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
130s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Marion Reneau

"The Belizean Bruiser"
9-9-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
L1

Ashlee Evans-Smith

"Rebel Girl"
6-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—