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Dennis Bermudez vs Tatsuya Kawajiri

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Dennis Bermudez
Tatsuya Kawajiri
30% 70%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
29
Age
Δ 9y
38
17-10
Career record
Δ 11 pp
37-11-2
L2
Current streak
W2
10
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Bermudez: 61 sig / 4 TD · Kawajiri: 12 sig / 1 TD
Dennis Bermudez
Tatsuya Kawajiri
36
Sig strikes landed
30
75
Sig strikes attempted
68
61
Total strikes landed
54
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
6.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
182s
Control time
226s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Dennis Bermudez

"The Menace"
17-10
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 10 fights · 7-3
Last 5
L UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
L UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
W UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
W UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
W UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
Blue corner
W2

Tatsuya Kawajiri

"Crusher"
37-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
W UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
L UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
W UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs …