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Cody Garbrandt vs Augusto Mendes

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy ·PPG Paints Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Cody Garbrandt
Augusto Mendes
77% 23%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 0"
65"
25
Age
Δ 8y
33
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Garbrandt: 11 sig / 0 TD · Mendes: 11 sig / 0 TD
Cody Garbrandt
Augusto Mendes
51
Sig strikes landed
40
125
Sig strikes attempted
104
65
Total strikes landed
54
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.6
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
102s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Cody Garbrandt

"No Love"
16-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
Blue corner

Augusto Mendes

"Tanquinho"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33