Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Camozzi
Joe Riggs
29%
71%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
25-13
Career record
Δ 7 pp
45-17
W1
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Camozzi: 11 sig / 0 TD ·
Riggs: 0 sig / 0 TD
Chris Camozzi
Joe Riggs
27
Sig strikes landed
32
67
Sig strikes attempted
61
50
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
116s
Control time
109s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Camozzi
25-13
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
14 fights · 7-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
L
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
Blue corner
W1
Joe Riggs
"Diesel"
45-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
L
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—