Prelims2
Women's Bantamweight
Lauren Murphy vs Kelly Faszholz
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy
·PPG Paints Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Lauren Murphy
Kelly Faszholz
68%
32%
Why
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
L2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Murphy: 95 sig / 1 TD ·
Faszholz: 76 sig / 0 TD
Lauren Murphy
Kelly Faszholz
44
Sig strikes landed
37
85
Sig strikes attempted
80
80
Total strikes landed
57
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.7
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
303s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Lauren Murphy
"Lucky"
16-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
Blue corner
Kelly Faszholz
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31