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Daniel Sarafian vs Oluwale Bamgbose

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy ·PPG Paints Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Daniel Sarafian
Oluwale Bamgbose
54% 46%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
78"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
11-6
Career record
Δ 10 pp
6-5
W1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Sarafian: 0 sig / 0 TD · Bamgbose: 8 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Sarafian
Oluwale Bamgbose
28
Sig strikes landed
24
39
Sig strikes attempted
39
45
Total strikes landed
31
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
136s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
18%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Daniel Sarafian

11-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
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L UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
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L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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W UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
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L UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping
—
Blue corner
L1

Oluwale Bamgbose

"Holy War Angel"
6-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
78"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
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