Prelims1
Welterweight
Alex Garcia vs Sean Strickland
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy
·PPG Paints Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Garcia
Sean Strickland
19%
81%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
29
Age
Δ 4y
25
16-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
32-7
W1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Garcia: 23 sig / 3 TD ·
Strickland: 84 sig / 1 TD
Alex Garcia
Sean Strickland
29
Sig strikes landed
41
84
Sig strikes attempted
111
45
Total strikes landed
59
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.9
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
176s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alex Garcia
"The Dominican Nightmare"
16-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot
—
Blue corner
W1
Sean Strickland
32-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—