Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
James Krause
Shane Campbell
83%
17%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
30
Age
Δ 1y
29
29-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
15-6
W1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Krause: 47 sig / 2 TD ·
Campbell: 82 sig / 2 TD
James Krause
Shane Campbell
50
Sig strikes landed
39
106
Sig strikes attempted
85
70
Total strikes landed
53
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.7
Takedowns attempted
3.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
162s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
James Krause
"The"
29-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
Blue corner
W1
Shane Campbell
"Shaolin"
15-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
L
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—