Main
Middleweight
Derek Brunson vs Roan Carneiro
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy
·PPG Paints Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Derek Brunson
Roan Carneiro
76%
24%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
76"
32
Age
Δ 6y
38
24-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
22-11
W3
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Brunson: 23 sig / 0 TD ·
Carneiro: 0 sig / 0 TD
Derek Brunson
Roan Carneiro
22
Sig strikes landed
18
60
Sig strikes attempted
50
34
Total strikes landed
39
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
160s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Derek Brunson
"The One"
24-9
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
Blue corner
W1
Roan Carneiro
"Jucao"
22-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—