Main
Welterweight
Donald Cerrone vs Alex Oliveira
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy
·PPG Paints Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Donald Cerrone
Alex Oliveira
67%
33%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
33
Age
Δ 5y
28
36-18
Career record
Δ 3 pp
23-12-1
L1
Current streak
W3
19
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Cerrone: 4 sig / 1 TD ·
Oliveira: 14 sig / 0 TD
Donald Cerrone
Alex Oliveira
35
Sig strikes landed
31
69
Sig strikes attempted
74
46
Total strikes landed
49
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.7
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
27s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36-18
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
19 fights · 15-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—
W
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
Blue corner
W3
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
23-12-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—