Main
Flyweight
Joseph Benavidez vs Zach Makovsky
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joseph Benavidez
Zach Makovsky
81%
19%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
32
Age
Δ 1y
33
29-8
Career record
Δ 9 pp
20-9
W4
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Benavidez: 66 sig / 0 TD ·
Makovsky: 40 sig / 4 TD
Joseph Benavidez
Zach Makovsky
46
Sig strikes landed
35
116
Sig strikes attempted
90
58
Total strikes landed
50
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
6.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
127s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Joseph Benavidez
29-8
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
Blue corner
L1
Zach Makovsky
"Fun Size"
20-9
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—