Main
Light Heavyweight
Ovince Saint Preux vs Rafael Cavalcante
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ovince Saint Preux
Rafael Cavalcante
74%
26%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
33
Age
Δ 3y
36
27-19
Career record
Δ 1 pp
12-8
L1
Current streak
L2
8
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Saint Preux: 51 sig / 1 TD ·
Cavalcante: 10 sig / 0 TD
Ovince Saint Preux
Rafael Cavalcante
31
Sig strikes landed
19
54
Sig strikes attempted
37
47
Total strikes landed
25
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
117s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ovince Saint Preux
27-19
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs S…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
Blue corner
L2
Rafael Cavalcante
"Feijao"
12-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
—
L
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—