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Misha Cirkunov vs Alex Nicholson

UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Misha Cirkunov
Alex Nicholson
60% 40%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 0"
78"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Cirkunov: 32 sig / 3 TD · Nicholson: 16 sig / 0 TD
Misha Cirkunov
Alex Nicholson
26
Sig strikes landed
17
45
Sig strikes attempted
37
39
Total strikes landed
24
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
4.0
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
290s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Misha Cirkunov

16-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
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Blue corner

Alex Nicholson

"The Spartan"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26