Main
Heavyweight
Roy Nelson vs Jared Rosholt
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Roy Nelson
Jared Rosholt
35%
65%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
40
Age
Δ 10y
30
22-15
Career record
Δ 19 pp
15-4
L3
Current streak
W3
14
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nelson: 42 sig / 0 TD ·
Rosholt: 36 sig / 0 TD
Roy Nelson
Jared Rosholt
20
Sig strikes landed
34
64
Sig strikes attempted
71
33
Total strikes landed
61
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.8
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
166s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22-15
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
14 fights · 6-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
L
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
Blue corner
W3
Jared Rosholt
15-4
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Mar…
—