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Joshua Burkman vs KJ Noons

UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Joshua Burkman
KJ Noons
70% 30%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
36
Age
Δ 3y
33
28-17
Career record
Δ 6 pp
13-10
L2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Burkman: 57 sig / 3 TD · Noons: 33 sig / 0 TD
Joshua Burkman
KJ Noons
40
Sig strikes landed
35
83
Sig strikes attempted
81
54
Total strikes landed
48
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Joshua Burkman

"The People's Warrior"
28-17 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 3 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
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L UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
Blue corner
L1

KJ Noons

"King"
13-10 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 5 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
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W UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
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L UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—