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Prelims1 Heavyweight

Derrick Lewis vs Damian Grabowski

UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Damian Grabowski
67% 33%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
31
Age
Δ 5y
36
W1
Current streak
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6
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lewis: 14 sig / 1 TD · Grabowski: 1 sig / 0 TD
Derrick Lewis
Damian Grabowski
26
Sig strikes landed
25
49
Sig strikes attempted
35
43
Total strikes landed
48
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
135s
Control time
178s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Derrick Lewis

"The Black Beast"
30-13 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
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L UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
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W UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
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L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
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W The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
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Blue corner

Damian Grabowski

"The Polish Pitbull"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36