Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gegard Mousasi
Thales Leites
89%
11%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
31
Age
Δ 4y
34
42-7-2
Career record
Δ 9 pp
28-10
L1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mousasi: 81 sig / 0 TD ·
Leites: 17 sig / 0 TD
Gegard Mousasi
Thales Leites
36
Sig strikes landed
27
78
Sig strikes attempted
66
51
Total strikes landed
43
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.4
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
93s
Control time
165s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gegard Mousasi
42-7-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mous…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
Blue corner
L1
Thales Leites
28-10
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—