Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tom Breese
Keita Nakamura
33%
67%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
24
Age
Δ 7y
32
13-3
Career record
Δ 7 pp
35-10-2
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Breese: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
Nakamura: 6 sig / 3 TD
Tom Breese
Keita Nakamura
33
Sig strikes landed
29
67
Sig strikes attempted
55
43
Total strikes landed
46
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.4
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
64s
Control time
194s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tom Breese
13-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
Blue corner
W1
Keita Nakamura
"K-Taro"
35-10-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—