Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Scott Askham
Chris Dempsey
74%
26%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
28
Age
Δ 1y
28
14-5
Career record
Δ 9 pp
11-6
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Askham: 7 sig / 1 TD ·
Dempsey: 6 sig / 1 TD
Scott Askham
Chris Dempsey
34
Sig strikes landed
22
63
Sig strikes attempted
45
48
Total strikes landed
38
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
136s
Control time
120s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Scott Askham
14-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
Blue corner
L1
Chris Dempsey
11-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—