Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Arnold Allen
Yaotzin Meza
87%
13%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
22
Age
Δ 13y
35
22-4
Career record
Δ 21 pp
21-12
W1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Allen: 31 sig / 4 TD ·
Meza: 25 sig / 0 TD
Arnold Allen
Yaotzin Meza
29
Sig strikes landed
19
70
Sig strikes attempted
49
52
Total strikes landed
32
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
203s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Arnold Allen
"Almighty"
22-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
Blue corner
L1
Yaotzin Meza
21-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—
L
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—