Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Davey Grant
Marlon Vera
35%
65%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
30
Age
Δ 7y
23
18-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
24-12-1
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Grant: 72 sig / 1 TD ·
Vera: 23 sig / 1 TD
Davey Grant
Marlon Vera
19
Sig strikes landed
29
34
Sig strikes attempted
55
32
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.5
2.7
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
133s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
12%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
47%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Davey Grant
"Dangerous"
18-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
Blue corner
W1
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
24-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
23
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—