Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Francisco Rivera
Brad Pickett
47%
53%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
34
Age
Δ 3y
37
11-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
25-15
L1
Current streak
L3
9
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rivera: 69 sig / 2 TD ·
Pickett: 39 sig / 3 TD
Francisco Rivera
Brad Pickett
44
Sig strikes landed
41
102
Sig strikes attempted
94
54
Total strikes landed
60
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.9
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
18s
Control time
156s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Francisco Rivera
"Cisco"
11-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
Blue corner
L3
Brad Pickett
"One Punch"
25-15
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
10 fights · 4-6
Last 5
L
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—