Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Patricky Freire
Ryan Couture
84%
16%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
30
Age
Δ 4y
33
17-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
12-5
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Patricky Freire
Ryan Couture
42
Sig strikes landed
37
94
Sig strikes attempted
106
31
Total strikes landed
56
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
78s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Patricky Freire
"Pitbull"
17-9
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
Bellator 147: Thomson vs. Villa…
—
W
Bellator 141: Guillard vs. Girtz
—
Blue corner
W1
Ryan Couture
12-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 135: Warren vs. Galvao
—