Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Chris Honeycutt
Paul Bradley
72%
28%
Why
28
Age
Δ 5y
33
9-1
Career record
Δ 16 pp
23-8
W1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Chris Honeycutt
Paul Bradley
43
Sig strikes landed
44
103
Sig strikes attempted
100
56
Total strikes landed
48
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
111s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Chris Honeycutt
"The Cutt"
9-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 133: Manhoef vs. Shlem…
—
Blue corner
Paul Bradley
"The Gentleman"
23-8
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-0