Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Raphael Butler
Tony Johnson
78%
22%
Why
10-2-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
12-3
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Raphael Butler
Tony Johnson
35
Sig strikes landed
25
86
Sig strikes attempted
69
41
Total strikes landed
32
2.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
129s
Control time
54s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Raphael Butler
"The Silencer"
10-2-1
Career record
Height
75"
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 134: The British Invas…
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Blue corner
W1
Tony Johnson
12-3
Career record
Height
73"
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 136: Brooks vs. Jansen
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