Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paul Ruiz
Josh San Diego
75%
25%
Why
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Paul Ruiz
Josh San Diego
38
Sig strikes landed
38
87
Sig strikes attempted
80
60
Total strikes landed
42
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
143s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Paul Ruiz
8-4
Career record
Height
66"
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
Bellator 133: Manhoef vs. Shlem…
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Blue corner
Josh San Diego
"JSD"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"