Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Art Arciniega
Justin Smitley
85%
15%
Why
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Art Arciniega
Justin Smitley
37
Sig strikes landed
50
85
Sig strikes attempted
93
49
Total strikes landed
58
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
131s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Art Arciniega
"King Arthur"
15-8
Career record
Height
68"
Age
34
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
Bellator 133: Manhoef vs. Shlem…
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Blue corner
Justin Smitley
0-0
Career record